Donald Trump will lose Wisconsin, probably by double-digits. But will the Trump train walk away from Wisconsin with zero delegates, or will he save face by winning a Congressional district or two?
Wisconsin allocates 18 of its 42 delegates to the statewide winner, but three go to whoever wins each of the state’s eight congressional districts.
With that unnecessarily byzantine delegate allocation system as a rubric, FiveThirtyEight.com writes, essentially, that Trump’s only hope of walking away from Wisconsin with any delegates lies in the 3rd and 7th Congressional districts.
Update: rumors are swirling that Trump is setting up a possible swing through western Wisconsin, including a rally at the La Crosse Center.
The chart below, outlining the results of Marquette’s latest poll, shows Trump maintaining a small lead in “Northern and western Wisconsin” – the 3rd and 7th districts.
Ted Cruz is choosing to focus on the eastern part of the state, though he’s sending surrogates to La Crosse and Eau Claire. Surrogates, however, hardly have the same impact as an actual candidate visit. Cruz is making a mistake by ignoring areas of the state where a simple one-off visit could swing the one-point margin to his favor.
Will voters in the 3rd and 7th be salty if they’re denied a candidate visit by Sen. Cruz? If they are, will they vote for Kasich or Trump instead and push Trump over? The margin is so thin, a small group of salty erstwhile Cruz voters could make all the difference.
If Cruz prevails in most of the state and Kasich prevails in the Madison area, as Marquette’s data indicates, Trump will be limited to at most the 6 delegates in the 3rd and 7th. If Cruz nudges his support up just a hair in north and western Wisconsin, Trump could walk away with zero delegates – which would be a YUGE statement in the quest to stop Trump.