Scenarios for 2016

National Elections

Scenario 1: Trump, Bush, Rubio, and Cruz share victories in early primaries. Jeb drops out fairly early in the nominating process, strengthening Rubio. After Trump loses several states, he starts to sound like a whiner and his support deflates like a soufflé, leaving Rubio and Cruz. Rubio emerges as the narrow winner and chooses Nikki Haley as his running mate. Rubio’s speech at Convention solidifies the party behind him and he cruises to a much-larger-than-expected victory over Hillary Clinton, whose desperate efforts at turning out the Obama coalition fail; in fact, Rubio earns nearly 50 percent of the Hispanic and youth vote. The cataclysm for The Left is compounded by a ruinous loss among working class white men and women. Democrats sob, some for months.

Scenario 2: After some bruising primaries, John Kasich drops out, bemoaning with hand gestures a lack of “kindness and sunshine-you-know-type-minded-people” in the GOP electorate. Santorum drops out, making a final call for the banning of sex toys and vibrating cell phones. Huckabee loses traction after he realizes he lost traction in 2008. Gilmore polling finds out his name recognition is actually below zero. Pataki goes berzerk, attending events dressed as a Klingon and “shooting” people with a pretend phaser while giggling. Trump changes his hair style to the bro-bun. trump bro bunAfter no candidate emerges the “winner” on March 1 – Super Tuesday – Frank Underwood gets impatient and shoves every Republican candidate except Trump in front of a subway or otherwise makes them disappear. House of Cards Season 4 premieres on March 4.

State Politics

Scenario 1: The Republicans maintain control of the Assembly and Senate. These elections will be defined not by a serious effort by any Democrat, but by a handful of very surprising candidacies and possibly victories by Republicans. Scott Walker’s approval rating will continue to slowly tick up. The legislative calendar will largely be boring. The race between Johnson and Feingold is much closer than anyone expects.

Scenario 2: Scott Walker’s approval rating drops into the 20s. Out of desperation, he blames the bald spot and stocks up on cans of Ronco’s Spray-On-Hair. Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling frizzes up her hair and and hits the tanning bed, declaring herself to be a minority a la Rachel Dolezal. Her office quickly retracts the statement after being advised that’s not what the title means. Shilling continues to not yet know she’s running for governor in 2018. Out-state Illinoisans reach a deal with Wisconsinites to gerrymander Milwaukee and Chicago into a new state. It’s determined that doing the same with Madison would be too hard, plus that’s where the Capitol is.


Scenario 1: The Packers lose their first playoff game. I don’t really care about the Admirals, Bucks, or Brewers.

Scenario 2: The Packers win the Superbowl.


Scenario 1: The Hollywood culture continues to get weirder. Star Wars wins several Oscars or whatever for music and effects. Other movies that came out recently win other things, most of them probably not really that good. The Walking Dead’s second-half of Season 6 continues to rank among TV’s best and most-watched shows. Its spinoff, Fear the Walking Dead, finds firm footing, just as its precursor did. Star Trek fans go into a frenzy as CBS leaks details about the new series, slated for January 2017 as a flagship of CBS’s new All-Access app, making the show a pioneer in the rapid move away from subscription cable in which most of the channels are junk. House of Cards, which was the flagship series for the Netflix app, premieres its fourth season on March 4. 2016 will be one of the last years for cable TV as we know it.

Scenario 2: Hollywood becomes the epicenter of an actual zombie apocalypse, and the world devolves into chaos as zombified celebrities go around eating everyone. Quite anticlimactically, there is no election because civilization has entirely collapsed by November.

To conclude: Here’s to scenario 1!



About the writer: Chris Rochester is editor in chief of Morning Martini. He’s an armchair politico, veteran of several campaigns, and communications specialist. He's the communications director for the MacIver Institute. Commentary here is strictly his own.