Generic Ballot Flips


Morning Martini is officially taking credit for the flipping of the generic congressional ballot from a muddled mix of Democrat and Republican victories to a surge for Republicans. I might’ve been wrong; a small wave just might be developing.

I wrote 9 days ago about about how the generic ballot’s mixed results – a contrast to the 2010 and 2006 wave years – proved that this year would be no wave election. That situation is now outdated; Real Clear Politics now claims there’s a GOP “surge” in the generic.

Republicans have now won or tied 9 out of the last ten polls asking voters if they’d be more likely to vote for the Republican or the Democrat for Congress, without naming names. That could be the result of the deteriorating situation overseas and the GOP’s role as the party of security.

Seriously though, the ballot didn’t flip because of us. Maybe one or two percent can be traced back to us, but not the full 3.9 percent that the GOP leads by, When one considers that the Democrats led in the RCP average by 1.4 points the last I wrote, that’s a sizeable flip in just over a week.

You’re welcome, America.

About the writer: Chris Rochester is editor in chief of Morning Martini. He’s a communication specialist with experience in the private sector and on various campaigns. He's the communications director for the John K. MacIver Institute for Public Policy. Commentary here is strictly his own.